【注意】对EDS不太好的消息

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据美国商业周刊2003年5月23日的报道，以下是译文：
  
对EDS不太好的消息
任命一个强有力的外人作为CEO是聪明的开端。然而标准普尔在推荐购买这家顶级IT服务提供商的股票时发现太多的拖累  
  
Electronic Data Systems是最大的独立IT服务提供者，2002年收入超过215亿美元。 尽管它拥有我们认为在这个行业有良好增长前景的领导地位，连续超过18个月的股票急剧下跌已经给EDS的财政投下了阴影。 当Electronic Data Systems(EDS)在2002年9月18日市场结束之后第一次揭露它的问题时，这个消息让许多分析员、投资者大吃一惊。 按照一项公告2002第三季收入和每股收益比早先预期要低，下一个交易日EDS股票下降超过50%，到$17.20。  
  
因为大部分的收入是来自长期合同，公司特别关注可以创造相对较好财政预期的IT服务部门。 标准普尔相信这些内在的期望值将使得EDS股票价格发生戏剧性的变化。自从出现消极的预报，它已经调整了它的管理班子和经营战略。 可是EDS股票交易的场上表现依然较差。  
  
起初。我们观察到EDS采取积极的举措在三月21任命Michael H. Jordan作为行政首长，Jordan已知的成功记录是最近作为CBS有限公司的董事长和行政主管。 另外,我们喜欢一个外乡人作领导的任命,因为它有助于说服投资者：EDS正脱离上述的管理失策并朝着新的方向前进。  
  
在战略上、我们希望EDS关注包含很少的前期成本和有助于加快获利能力的小和短期合同。 我们预期在即将来临的六月股票分析评论日将透露更详细的经济展望。  
  
虽然我们相信最近的这些举措是积极的起步，但是我们认为个别的悬而未决的问题必须弄清楚以便恢复投资者信心。在IT行业正面临极端艰苦的环境时, EDS在决定其10%收入的几个大合同上，包括MCI(最近改名WorldCom)、美国军方和通用汽车(GM)，都遭遇到困难。  
  
修订协议。
EDS是为汽车巨人提供数据处理及其他信息技术服务的主要供应商，包括健康和养老金综合信息系统、工程系统支持、办公自动化和工厂自动化功能。 在2002来自通用汽车的合同收入减少16%，EDS预料在2003会有更多的减少。 另外在最近重新谈判合同之后，EDS发现边际收益减少。  
  
EDS向MCI提供的信息技术服务,大多属于1999年十月签订的一项11年期限的服务合同。 在2002年7月，当时还叫做worldcom的MCI根据美国破产法11章申请破产。 据说EDS2002年来自MCI的收入大约有6亿1千万美元。EDS已经调整了这些协议条款中的服务要求、适当降低了现有的估价，并且决定需要预先申请的对EDS的欠债数额。 它预料修订与MCI协议的申请将在这个季度的某个时候被破产法院批准。  
  
2000年10月EDS得到一份向美国海军和海军陆战队提供IT服务的合同。 这份在2002年10月被修改的合同将在超过7年的时间里至少收入60亿美元。 然而，本月早些时候，EDS记录显示因为调整该合同的价格和调度安排，结果导致3亿3千4百万的税前损失。 此外, EDS又推迟了关于该合同获利时间的预期。预料直到2004中期以前不会获利。  
  
证券交易委员会的麻烦。
我们认为EDS暴露的另一个忧虑在航空运输业：削弱的财务状况、正在面临的恐怖威胁和 *** 的冲击。 2003年3月31日，EDS与美国Airways签订了一份新的合同，取代早先的曾经为它在2002年带来1亿9千万美元的合同。新的交易,为期10年，包含服务和价格的减少。 EDS与民航运输业最大的合同是与美国航空公司( American Airlines)签订的，每年有4亿美元的收入。 其他的与美国和国际上的航空公司以及有关旅游业的协议，每年大约有6亿美元的收入。  
  
结果EDS在美国证券交易委员的官方调查报告中处于中间的位置。 该调查原来关注该公司的与它的普通股票相关的采购和结算的远期合同，以及影响它的2002年第三季利润预告的有关事件的消息。 然而,按照EDS五月7日公开的第一季度收益,证券交易委员会要求其提供与海军和海军陆战队合同有关的文件。  
  
虽然EDS不能预知该调查报告的结果，但是我们认为正在进行的不确定因素和最新的进展对于股东来说是消极的，直到问题澄清为止。 EDS股票，在5月20日成交价是$18.37，比较今年迄今为止4.5%升幅的标准普尔500股票指数，显得平缓。 我们相信围绕该公司在领导地位方面的变化、问题合同、在航空运输业问题的暴露，以及证券交易委员会的检查已经损害到这支股票。  
  
2003年，我们预期EDS的收入大约上升3%和每股收益从2002的$2.06到$1.61，下降22%。 在基本面的评估上、EDS股票交易价格将低于证券市场价格获利和价格获利增长的基本面。另外该股票交易低于他们历史上的平均出售价格大约1.5。然而,已知的关于它的生意上的遗留的疑问，我们给该股票2颗星，或避免推荐该股票并建议投资者在别处投放他们的基金。
  
businessweek原文：
  
For EDS, Not Enough Good News   
Naming a strong outsider as CEO is a smart start. S&, however, still sees too many drags on this top IT services provider to recommend buying it  
   
Electronic Data Systems is the largest independent information-technology services provider, with 2002 revenues exceeding $21.5 billion. Despite its leadership in an industry that we think has favorable growth prospects, the shares have declined sharply over the last 18 months, as EDS has lowered financial projections. When Electronic Data Systems (EDS ) first revealed its problems after the market close on September 18, 2002, the news caught many analysts and investors by surprise. Following the announcement that revenues and earnings per share for third-quarter 2002 would be lower than previously anticipated, EDS shares fell by more than 50%, to $17.20, the next trading day.   
  
Typically, companies focused on the IT services sector can make relatively good financial projections since the large majority of revenues are recurring and come from long-term contracts. We at S& believe these built-in expectations contributed to the dramatic one-day move in EDS's stock price. Since the negative preannouncement occurred, it has restructured its management team and business strategy. EDS shares, however, have continued to underperform the broader market.  
  
INITIAL STEPS.  We view EDS's naming of Michael H. Jordan as chief executive on Mar. 21 as a positive move, given Jordan's successful track record, most recently as chairman and CEO of CBS Corp. In addition, we like the appointment of an outside leader, since it helps convince investors that EDS is heading in a new direction while simultaneously disassociating itself from previous missteps by management.  
  
On the strategy front, we expect EDS to focus on smaller and shorter-term contracts, which encompass fewer upfront costs and help to expedite profitability. We anticipate that it will reveal a more detailed business outlook at its upcoming analyst day in June.  
  
Though we believe these recent moves are positive initial steps, we think several outstanding issues must be resolved to win back investor confidence. On top of the tough IT-spending environment, EDS has had ongoing difficulties with a few of its largest contracts, including MCI (as the recently renamed WorldCom is now known), the U.S. military, and General Motors (GM ), which makes up over 10% revenues.  
  
REVISED AGREEMENT.  EDS is the primary provider of data processing and other IT services for the auto giant, including integrated information systems for health and benefits, engineering systems support, office automation, and plant automation functions. Revenues from the GM contract declined 16% in 2002, and EDS expects a further decrease in 2003. In addition, it sees margins edging lower after it recently renegotiated the contract.  
  
EDS provides IT services to MCI, the majority of which are provided under an 11-year services agreement signed in October, 1999. In July, 2002, while still WorldCom, MCI filed for Chapter 11 bankruPTCy. Revenues from it represented about $610 million of EDS's 2002 revenues. EDS has revised the terms for these agreements to change its service requirements, reduce certain existing rates, and settle pre-petition amounts owed to EDS. It expects the revised MCI agreements to be approved by the bankruptcy court sometime this quarter.  
  
In October, 2000, EDS was awarded a contract by the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps to provide IT infrastructure services. The contract, which was modified in October 2002, is valued at a minimum of $6 billion in revenues over seven years. However, earlier this month, EDS recorded a $334 million pretax loss associated with it, as a result of adjustments to the pricing and deployment schedule. Moreover, EDS again postponed its forecast regarding when the contract would turn cash-flow-positive. It now does not expect this to occur until mid-2004.  
  
SEC TROUBLE, TOO.  We think EDS's exposure to the airline industry is another concern, given its weakened financial condition, ongoing terrorism threats, and the impact of  *** . On March 31, 2003, EDS entered into a new contract with U.S. Airways, which superseded the previous contract that accounted for $190 million of 2002 revenues. The new deal, which has a 10-year term, contains reduced services and pricing. EDS's largest airline contract is an annual $400 million deal with American Airlines (AMR ). Other agreements with U.S. and international airline and related travel businesses equate to about $600 million in annual revenues.  
  
Finally, EDS is in the midst of a formal Securities & Exchange Commission investigation. The probe originally focused on the company's purchase and settlement of forward contracts related to its common stock and information regarding events leading up to its third-quarter 2002 earnings pre-announcement. However, following EDS's May 7 first-quarter earnings release, the SEC requested documents related to its Navy and Marine Corps contract.  
  
Although EDS can't predict the investigation's outcome, we think the ongoing uncertainty and recent expansion of the proceedings are negatives for stockholders until the questions are resolved. EDS's shares, which traded at $18.37 on May 20, are flat so far this year, vs. a 4.5% gain for the S& 500-stock index. We believe the issues surrounding the change in leadership, problem contracts, airline industry exposure, and SEC inspection have hurt the stock.  
  
For 2003, we anticipate EDS's revenues rising about 3% and earnings per share falling 22%, to $1.61, from 2002's $2.06 from continuing operations. On a valuation basis, EDS trades below the broader market on a p-e and p-e-to-growth basis. In addition, the shares are trading below their historical price-to-sales average of about 1.5. However, given the lingering questions with respect to its business, we have a 2-STAR, or avoid, recommendation on the shares and would advise investors to place their funds elsewhere.

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