【注意】CAM Software Market Poised for a Rebound

A discussion of the current trends in the CAM industry,which edged into positive territory in 2003 after several years of declining growth,Manufacturing Automation,MAY/JUNE 2004.
  
https://www.sensauto.com/mar/ma_june04.html
  
The following material is excerpted from Manufactoring Automation
edited by Peter Adrian and published monthly by
Vital Information Publications
754 Caravel Lane, Foster City, CA 94404
Tel/Fax 650-345-7018  
  
After several years of declining growth, the market for CAM (computer-aided manufacturing), or NC (numerical control), software edged forward in 2003, reflecting the beginnings of a turn-around in the U.S. and global economy, and increased industrial production in key regions (e.g., the U.S. and Asia, including Japan, China, India). Manufacturing Automation sees clear opportunities for a return to growth in the CAM software market, as key national economies expand; the mold, tool, and die industry experiences more positive business conditions; and the manufacturing sector remains a viable, vital industry and indeed strengthens over the near-term. Furthermore, opportunities for CAM software are being driven by the fundamental, ongoing need to implement innovative manufacturing technologies (such as lean manufacturing) and to consistently achieve greater production efficiency in order to survive and expand amidst increasing global competition and ever-compressed product life cycles.  
  
   
  Increased investment in capital goods is a vital factor in determining whether a manufacturing plant will survive and continue to be viable and prosper.  
Although the CAM software industry is mature, it is a vital sector. CAM software allows manufacturers to more efficiently make quality, complex molds, parts and products, boosting their ability to compete and to satisfy customer demands. CAM software helps manufacturers achieve a digital manufacturing enterprise geared toward attaining reduced lead times, enhanced collaboration with customers and supply chain partners, market segment-focused products, lower manufacturing costs, yet improved product quality.  
  
Opportunities for CAM software are affected by such key factors as: the health and growth of the manufacturing industry; the condition of the European, North American, and Asia-Pacific economies; demand for machine tools (particularly CNC machine tools); and the state of the mold, tool, and die industry and the automotive sector, as well as such industries as aerospace, machinery, and consumer products.  
  
The fragmented and competitive CAM software market is expected to experience greater consolidation and mergers and acquisitions going forward. A logical strategy for achieving success in the CAM software market is to target specific, selected markets, and to take steps to ensure that one's CAM software easily interfaces and integrates with the user's overall digital manufacturing solution.  
  
There is a prevailing trend, which is likely continue, toward moving manufacturing of lower-value, mass-produced goods to countries, such as China, that have cheap and abundant labor. On the other hand, manufacturing in highly industrialized countries (e.g., the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan) will tend to focus on more complex, value-added products and systems. The need for highly automated machinery and processes will be driven by demand for such items as more sophisticated luxury cars and more intricate communications systems. Higher-margin, technology-intensive production operations will likely tend to remain in their home nations over the foreseeable future rather than be outsourced.  
  
According to The Economist, the U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) grew 2.5% in 2002, increased 3.2% in 2003, and is projected to grow 4.6% in 2003.The Euro zone's GDP grew 1.3% in 2002, expanded 0.5% in 2003, and is estimated to grow 1.9% in 2004. Japan's GDP declined -1.0% in 2002, grew 2.7% in 2003, and is projected to grow 2.1% in 2004. China's GDP grew 9.1% in 2003.  
  
According to The Economist (February 21, 2004), in 2003, the U.S.' industrial production grew 2.3%, Japan industrial production grew 5.7%, and industrial production in the Euro zone remained essentially unchanged. China's industrial production grew 18.1%, while India's grew 7.4%.  
  
The Institute for International Economics forecasts that the world economy will increase 4.5% in 2004 and 4% in 2005. They forecast a 4.5% growth for the U.S. economy (which accounts for about 22% of the global GDP) in 2004 and a 3.5% growth in 2005. The Institute projects an 8.5% growth in China's economy in 2004 and a 7% increase in 2005. The Institute projects that Western Europe's economy will grow 2% in 2004 and 2.25% in 2005.  
  
There are essential factors at play that continue to fuel growth opportunities for advances in automated manufacturing and for CAM/NC software. Such driving forces include: pressure from investors on manufacturers and software vendors to increase their revenues, margins, and profits; Internet-propelled rising customer expectations for rapidly delivered customized products offering greater functionality at lower cost; tighter global and local competition, inducing manufacturers to enhance their level of automation to produce quality products in the shortest amount of time at minimal cost; shorter product develOPMent cycles, generating continuous changes in design and a need for more NC programming to produce the product and the molds, tools, and dies required for manufacturing; the use of fewer parts per assembly, which often leads to a more complex part and more difficult NC programming; acceptance of newer manufacturing methodologies (e.g., digital manufacturing, collaboration, concurrent engineering, lean production, supply chain management, design for manufacturing) that place greater emphasis on design for efficient manufacture; and the migration of advanced technology (e.g., CAD/CAM) software systems form product design to manufacturing.  
  
Additional CAM software market drivers include: increased emphasis on a product's aesthetic characteristics for product differentiation, leading to the creation of complex, free-form shapes that can require NC programming; the greater complexity of manufacturing tools and processes, generating more NC programming; and the shortage of skilled workers, prompting companies to use automated tools. Furthermore, in a sluggish or depressed economy, toolmakers experience more intense pressure to deliver high-quality products in a timely fashion at a competitive price to gain a competitive edge. CAM software can boost a manufacturer's competitiveness and ability to exploit new markets.  
  
CIMdata' (Ann Arbor, MI, 734-668-9922) NC Software and Related Services Market Assessment Report (Version 13, May 2004), authored by Alan Christman, vice president, CIMdata, found that, following three years of contraction, the world NC software and services market, in terms of end-user payments, grew 1.7% in 2003 to $1.050 billion. End-user payments include software vendor revenues plus reseller and OEM revenues.  
  
The terms NC and CAM are used interchangeably in the report. The CAM software arena includes manufacturing modeling, machining process planning, toolpath generation and verification, CMM support, and post-processing functions. Manufacturing modeling includes preparing a design for manufacturing, and design and documentation of the manufacturing tools required to produce a part. Service revenues are only included for vendors and resellers that provide NC software.  
  
The data for the CAM/NC software market includes revenues associated with the CAM functions for CAD/CAM or PLM companies that provide NC software. Typically, total company revenues are included for CAM-centric companies. The data includes niche vendors that provide only one of the CAM functions. For niche vendors providing multiple functions, only CAM-related revenues are included.  
  
To obtain end-user payments, vendor revenues are segmented into those received from direct sales and those received from a reseller channel. Revenue received from resellers is multiplied by a factor of 2.2 to obtain an approximation of end-user payments. The 2.2 factor is based on the assumption that the average discount offered to resellers is 50%; therefore, for each dollar of end-user payment, half goes to the reseller and to the software vendor. An additional 20% is applied to the end-user payment to account for services performed by resellers.  
  
During 1993-1999, the world NC software and services market, in terms of end-user payments, virtually doubled, from $648 million in 1993 to $1.215 billion in 1999. End-user payments declined during 2000-2002. In 2002, the NC software/services market, based on end-user payments, totaled $1.039 billion, representing a decline -6.4% from 2001.  
  
The NC software and services market, measured by end-user payments, is projected to increase 6.9% in 2004 to reach $1.122 billion. CIMdata projects that nine significant CAM software vendors will experience double-digit growth rates in 2004: Delcam, SolidCAM, Vero International, Auton, Gibbs, Cimatron, TekSoft, Pathtrace, and IBM/Dassault Systemes.  
  
Of the overall $1.050 billion NC software and services market (as measured by end-user payments) in 2003, $726 million was accounted for by vendor revenues and $324 million by reseller revenues. In 2002, vendor revenues accounted for $729 million and reseller revenues comprised $310 million of the overall $1.039 billion NC software/services market, based on end-user payments. In 2004, vendor revenues are projected to account for $762 million and reseller revenues will account for $360 million of overall NC software and related services market of $1.122 billion, based on end-user payments.  
  
In 2003, vendor-received NC software/services revenues dipped -0.4% to $726 million. In 2002, vendor revenues decreased -3.1% to $729 million. Vendor revenues are expected to increase 5.0% in 2004 to $762 million.  
  
In 2003, reseller NC software/services revenues increased about 4.5% to $324 million. In 2002, reseller revenues declined about 12.6% to $310 million. Reseller revenues generally increased at a solid annual rate during 1993-1999. In 2004, reseller NC-related revenues are projected to increase about 11.1% to $360 million.  
  
In 2003, NC software revenues accounted for $460 million (63.4%) of overall vendor revenues, while NC-related services comprised $266 million (36.6%). In 2002, software revenue accounted for $475 million (65.2%) of overall vendor revenues, and services revenues encompassed $254 million (34.8%). In 2004, software revenue is projected to account for $490 million (64.3%) over vendor NC revenues, while services revenue will account for $272 million (35.7%). Services revenues are mainly accounted for by software maintenance.  
  
In 2003, vendor NC software revenues decreased -3.2%, compared to a -1.6% decrease in 2002. In 2004, vendor software revenues are projected to rise 6.5%.  
  
In 2003, vendor NC services revenues increased 4.7%, compared to a decrease of -5.5% in 2002. In 2004, vendor services revenues are anticipated to increase 2.3%.  
  
In 2003, the geographic distribution of the global NC software and services revenues received by vendors was: Europe-38%; North America-27%; Asia-Pacific-32%; ROW (rest-of-the-world)-2%.(Figures may not add due to rounding). Germany was the dominant European national market; and Japan was the dominant national market in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2004, the distribution is expected to be: Europe-39%; North America-28%; Asia-Pacific-32%; ROW-about 2%.  
  
In 2003, the distribution of the overall vendor-received NC software/services revenues by industry segment was: mold, tool, and die-33%; automotive-24%; aerospace-14%; consumer products-10%; machinery-10%; electric/electronics-4%; fabrication-3%; government-1%; and other-2%. (Figures may not add due to rounding). The distribution is projected to remain fairly similar in 2004, although the share accounted for by automotive will slightly diminish.  
  
In 2003, the distribution of vendor revenues by type of product produced was: molds-31%; dies-18%; aerospace parts-14%; prismatic production parts-11%; prismatic job shop parts-7%; prototype parts-8%; tools-8%; sheet metal/plate -2%; and other-2%. (Figures may not add due to rounding). In 2003, total revenues derived from the building of molds, tools, and dies accounted for about 57% of overall vendor NC revenues. In 2004, the distribution is expected to remain relatively similar, although the share accounted for by aerospace will increase slightly and the share attributed to tools will slightly decrease.  
  
In 2003, the distribution of vendor revenues by type of CAM function was: toolpath generation-43%; process planning-3%; other design-13%; mold base/tool design-16%; modeling--12%; info management-2%; verification/simulation-6%; and post processors-5%. Manufacturing, modeling, and design functions collectively accounted for slightly over 40% of the 2003 revenues. The distribution is projected to remain essentially constant in 2004.  
  
As toolpath generation software becomes more automated, it will continue to account for a lesser percentage of overall revenues, declining to about 43% of revenues in 2003,compared to 53% of revenues in 1999. The percentage of overall revenues accounted for by manufacturing, modeling, and design is expected to remain virtually level at 43% of the total. The report notes that mold base/tool design-specific software will likely capture a higher percentage in the future, as mold, tool, and die software comes to the market.  
  
In 2003, the top 10 CAM software/services vendors, as measured by vendor revenues, were: UGS PLM Solutions (with estimated 2003 CAM revenues of $109 million and a 15% market share); IBM/Dassault Systemes-$94.5 million, 13% share); Hitachi Zosen Systems ($64 million, 8.8% share); PTC--$64 million, 8.5% share); Delcam--$35.3 million, 4.9% share); TEBIS--$25 million, 3.4% share); Missler--$23.2 million, 3.2% share; Cimatron--$21.7 million, 3.0% share; Sescoi--$21 million, 2.9% share); and CNC Software--$16.7 million, 2.3% share.   
  
The leading 10 vendors jointly accounted for 65.1% of the overall market. In 2003, IBM/Dassault, Delcam, Missler, and CNC Software were the only vendors among the top 10 to achieve an increase in CAM revenues compared to 2002.  
  
In 2004, the top 10 CAM vendors, based on vendor revenues are projected to be: UGS PLM Solutions (with projected CAM revenues of $115 million, and a 15.1% market share); IBM/Dassault--$104 million, 13.7% share); Hitachi Zosen--$61 million, 8% share); PTC--$60 million, 7.9% share); Delcam--$43.1 million, 5.7% share); Tebis--$26.0 million, 3.4% share); Missler--$25.0 million, 3.3% share); Cimatron--$24.0 million, 3.2% share); Sescoi--$21 million, 2.8% share);and Vero International--$18.5 million, 2.4% share). In 2003, Vero International was ranked in the eleventh position, with estimated CAM revenues of $16.3 million.   
  
CIMdata identified a number of key trends impacting the CAM software market, which is described as an essentially healthy market, although mature. Such trends and developments include: a market evolution toward the digital virtual enterprise (characterized by Web-based software; hybrid models, collaboration; full programming automation; process-centric, segment-focused products; hybrid adaptive and rule-based software; the re-emergence of 5-axis software; knowledge-embedded software; and CAM as a PLM (product life cycle management) component); emergence of EDS and IBM/Dassault as the major players in the CAM market; acquisitions and investments by the major CAD vendors plus SDRC (which, along with UGS, is part of EDS PLM Solutions); a fragmented and competitive market; the likelihood of greater mergers/acquisitions and consolidation in the CAM market (the major acquisition recently occurred in April when a private equity group comprised of Bain Capital, Silver Lake Partners, and Warburg Pincus agreed to purchase UGS PLM Solutions for $2.05 billion in cash from EDS); and more demanding customers.  
  
Additional key trends in the CAM software marketplace include: customers are taking a broader perspective as they procure CAM software (they are now considering services and adjunct software available as well as CAM software, including software for process planning, quality control, change management, PDM, scheduling, factory simulation, and shop floor control); with improvements in interoperability by vendors, best-in-class products can become a more viable alternative for customers; increased globalization, driven in part by outsourcing of manufacturing to countries with lower-cost production; targeting specific markets, compared to providing a generic CAM solution); the emergence of shop floor programming, which is particularly important for one-of-a-kind programs, such as those in tool and die operations (CAM software is being developed for use by machinists, and shop floor programming is implemented at three levels: in the controller; in toolpath generation, and in full modeling and toolpath generation); and expansion into digital manufacturing, as CAM or CAD/CAM products are becoming a part of a larger digital manufacturing solution and CAM products are being linked to digital manufacturing products.  
  
The most frequently mentioned market trends cited by CAM software vendors in 2003 include: a changing marketplace with respect to location and type of customer, as business migrates to the Far East and Eastern Europe; increased collaboration among vendors and customers and vendors and their competitors; increased concurrent engineering and manufacturing becoming a greater portion of PLM; greater interest in process planning; increase in shop floor programming; and a greater interest in services and in specific development for individual users.  
  
The most frequently mentioned CAM technology trends identified by vendors in 2003 include: support of 5-axis machining; support of multi-axis or multi-function machining; support of knowledge-based machining; support of high-speed machining; direct machining of solid models; support of feature-based machining; and greater programming automation.  
  
  

    想不到tebis也入top ten ，  加拿大好像也只有我公司用它， powermill有5.7% share是非常利害，我相信99%的公司只卖它的cam, 如果就cam而言，它是最大市场占有了。

日立竟然一直排在ptc之前？